Real examples help to better understand how to interpret the statistics.

**False Positive Paradox**: A particular medical test for a disease is 96% accurate. If one has the disease, the test comes back ‘Yes’ 96% of the time, and if one does not have the disease, the test comes back ‘Yes’ 4% of the time.

If 100 of 10000 tested patients have the disease, what is the probability that the person with the diagnosis ‘Yes’ has the disease?

**Effective Average Infection Ratio**: R is the effective average infection ratio for a disease, also known as the reproduction number. It is the average number of secondary infections caused by one person. (Infections caused by the secondary infections – which would be tertiary infections – are not counted). Consider 50 infected people. Suppose 49 spread the infection to nobody, but one person spreads the infection to 60 people.

What is the R-value?

*Leslie Green* asks: How would you propose **to deal with the COVID-19 **pandemic, given information current at the time of writing (11 October 2020).

A. Severe lockdown for 4 weeks

B. Ignore it and carry on as normal

C. Partial lockdown and wait for a vaccine

D. Some other idea

]]>Which product do you choose?

A. 8 positive ratings (8 total ratings)

B. 45 positive ratings (48 total ratings)

C. 90 positive ratings (98 total ratings)

D. 177 positive ratings (198 total ratings)

Find the answer at aplusclick.org.

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There are 5 counters in a bag. Three are Argentinean (blue) and two are Brazilian (green). Three counters are randomly picked out of the bag, one by one. They are not returned to the bag.

What probability is higher?

A. The probability of choosing * three Argentinean counters* in a row.

B. The probability of choosing * two Brazilian counters* in a row and then one Argentinean counter.

Find the answer.

]]>Estimate the probability that the girl will get married soon.

*The problem is mentioned in The New York Times NUMBERPLAY and it is credited to Sunil Singh.*

Secret agent 001 spies on a secret agent who spies on secret agent 002,

who spies on a secret agent who spies on secret agent 003,

who spies on . . . spies on secret agent 007

who spies on a secret agent who spies on secret agent 001.

Who spies on secret agent 007?

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Gerry has several pets at home.

All of them are dogs, except for three.

All of them are cats, except for four.

All of them are tortoises, except for five.

How many dogs does he have?

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Each button is wired to exactly one of these functions, but each function is not necessarily wired to exactly one button.

Assuming that you are clever, but unlucky, how many button presses are required to establish exactly which button does which function?

Check the answer

]]>It is the first day of a new school year, and this class has only 10 students. Ashley has 9 friends, Betty has 8, Caleb has 7, Derek has 6, Elaine has 5, Graham has 4, Henri has 3, Ivana has 2, Julie has 1. Name one of Fred’s friends.

In a group of 4 school children, each child has exactly two friends, just one of which is their best friend. What is the minimum possible number of children for whom their best friend is also that friend’s best friend?

It is the first day of a new school year, and this class has only 10 students. Ashley has 9 friends, Betty has 8, Caleb has 7, Derek has 6, Elaine has 5, Graham has 4, Henri has 3, Ivana has 2, Julie has 1. How many friends does Fred have?

It is the first day of a new school year, and this class has only 5 students. Amy has no friends yet. Betty has one friend. Chris has three friends. Derek has two friends. How many friends does Ellie have?

In a group of five students, Ann has one real friend among them, Betty has two, Craig has three, and Dianna has two. How many real friends does Edgar have in the group?

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